F1.5 Odds Summary

Formula 1 midfield Battle Odds Summary

The top of the Formula 1 leaderboard has already been decided with Lewis Hamilton taking his 6th world title. His teammate has also clinched the runner up spot. But for many out there, the Formula 1 midfield battle has always been the more interesting fight. Today we’ll go through a summary of how things are shaking out in the back end of the top 10 for the 2019 F1 season ahead of the Brazilian Grand Prix. We’ll focus on three drivers in particular who are in close contention: Daniel Ricciardo, Sergio Perez, and Lando Norris.

The calculations are based on the current standings, DNFs, and marginal weighted bias. Not meant to be a statistics lecture, I’ll leave parts of the calculation out but feel free to debate them in the comments section. Here are the baseline numbers I used for this model.

Daniel Ricciardo

The chances of Ricciardo staying in the top 10 for a final finish in the Formula 1 Midfield Battle of the Drivers World Championship are very high – 90%. Despite his higher than normal DNF rate, he scores more points than other drivers when comparing their current grid position.

Sergio Perez

The chances for Sergio Perez to remain P10 and close out the season in a very solid P10 for Racing Point are fairly high – 84%. He has a 10% chance of moving into the P9. He has also still has the threat to be passed by Lando Norris. Lando’s DNF rate is the only thing that limits this probability. 

Lando Norris

The chances for Lando Norris to jump into the top 10 for the Formula 1 season are 31%. This number would normally be much lower but considering Lando’s placement when he does finish the race, he’s in direct contention but his DNF rates are too high which is skewing the model.

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Ricciardo P9 Odds

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Ricciardo P10 Odds

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Ricciardo P11 Odds

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Sergio P9 Odds

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Sergio P10 Odds

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Sergio P11 Odds

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Lando P9 Odds

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Lando P10 Odds

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Lando P11 Odds

Daniel Ricciardo

Ricciardo’s recent performances have put him the drivers seat (no pun intended) of finishing his maiden season with Renault in the top 10 of the Formula 1 midfield battle. Surely this will not encourage him too much as he was hoping for best of the rest considering Hulkenberg’s finish last year. But after the Renault brake adjustment controversy and the PU lackluster performance, it’s decent consolation.

Ricciardo’s DNF rate of 26% does leave the door open, though, for some surprises. As it stands now, Ricciardo enters the Brazilian Grand Prix with 46 points. He’s set to pick up 3 more points judging by his average finish rate and factoring in his DNF rate. In full transparency, Ricciardo’s average placement rate is 9.5 when he finishes a race. I’ve rounded this down based on his momentum. This could very easily rounded up to an average place of 10 – which would give him an average 1 point her race making the maths tighter. But a P10 or better is +90% for Ricciardo.

Sergio Perez

Sergio has positioned himself nicely in the Formula 1 midfield battle in that those chasing him, namely Lando Norris, are prone to DNF. From a statistical point of view, he has P10 all but locked up. Of those on the hunt for inside the top finishing, he has the lowest of all tied only with Kimi Raikkonen at 10.5% DNF rate. Sergio’s average place when he finishes a race is P10. This is confirmed by the fact that he’s P10 as it is with 44 points going into the Brazilian Grand Prix.

If results hold as they are now, Sergio will end the season with a projected 46 points. The only way he’s overtaken by anyone barring oddities we can’t account for, is if Lando Norris defies his DNF odds and starts finishing races. He has one of the highest on the grid at about a 1/3 of races he’s DNF’ed. Maths suggests it’s likely he’ll DNF in one of the final two races. But if Lando does not DNF, he’ll take 4 points total and climb to 45 points. Still falling short of Sergio’s projected finish.

Sergio would need to perform worse than his average final classification to fall outside of the top 10. Or he’d have to DNF a race where Lando did not. When factoring in Lando’s finish rate with his typical placement plus Norris needed to score a position better than average,  this puts Sergio’s final odds at finishing the season P10 at 84%.

For Sergio to jump Ricciardo, he would have to hope for a DNF from the Aussie or a poor showing. Ricciardo’s DNF rate is 26% so it’s not impossible. But Perez would also have to score better than his average score. Of the past 7 races since the summer break, he’s finished much better than average with his only double digit place finish coming at the US Grand Prix. There’s a 10% chance of Sergio grabbing P9 from Ricciardo.

Lando Norris 

The chances for Lando Norris to parachute into the top 10 of the Formula 1 Midfield Battle season are low should things hold. If we keep things consistent for all other drivers, Sergio Perez would score 1.8 points for the remainder of the season- round that up to 2. Remember, that’s factoring in his chance of DNF in conjunction with his average classification when finishing a race. But it is possible. Lando would need to fight his abnormally high rate of DNF and take his average place and points when he finishes a race, which is 8.8. We will round that to a P9 which takes home 2 points.

Variable chance would say it’s VERY unlikely he doesn’t DNF at one of the two remaining races. So should things hold, Lando is stuck at 44 points and in P11. It’s worth noting that Lando is coming of a solid P7 performance where he looked very comfortable in his McLaren. He’s in a good position to finish well and have a shot at the top 10 if we can score better than his typical position. But he has to bank on his car making it through the full race – if it does, his chances greatly increase. This is all baked into his current odds of finishing P10 at 31% and P9 at 5%. 

Even if we assume Lando will not DNF one of the final two races and takes home his average points haul, he’ll end the season at 45 points. If Perez holds to what he typically does, he’d end the season with 46 points, still outscoring Norris by a single point.

That changes if Sergio does DNF. Unfortunately for Lando, Perez has a very low DNF rate. Because Sergio’s average finish rate is 89%, his consistency over the final two races will make or break Lando’s chances.

Video Content 

Formula 1 Midfield Battle Video

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